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Minimum alcohol unit price advocates cast doubt on recent warnings that low-level drinkers would bear the brunt of Scotland’s plan to introduce the scheme next May.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said last week it may be “better to reform duties and not have a minimum price at all”. It estimated a 50p minimum would increase the price of around 70% of off-trade alcohol units purchased, unfairly impacting low-level drinkers.

But these calculations have some shortcomings, says John Holmes of the Sheffield Alcohol Research Group, which forecast the impact of Scotland’s scheme. These mean the IFS has over-estimated the cost to people who do not overdo it.

Most importantly the IFS figures to not recognise alcohol consumption is heavily skewed towards heavy drinkers, says Holmes. The one-in-four people in Scotland who exceed the old, looser guidelines together drink around three-quarters of the alcohol.

This top-loaded consumption pattern means it is heavy drinkers who purchase the vast majority of units, and an even greater proportion of units bought for under 50p. This means it is heavy drinkers who will feel the pinch as the result of heavy consumption under minimum pricing, as the scheme intends.

And, to add to this, the number of units bought in Scotland for under 50p is probably not the 70% of the total the IFS estimates, but more like 50%, Holmes says. This “more robust”percentage comes from sales data rather than the self-reports relied on by the IFS statistic.

Another point worth considering, according to another commentator, is that raising taxes on some categories of alcoholic drinks favoured by heavy drinkers instead, as recommended by IFS, would also have an unwelcome impact on some low-level drinkers. ■

Our life expectancy is lower if we drink more than 125ml of alcohol a week, according to new research.

“Drinking alcohol at levels which were believed to be safe is actually linked with lower life expectancy and several adverse health outcomes,” says Dr Dan Blazer from Duke University, a co-author of the Lancet study.

The decline in life expectancy was found to start slightly below the UK’s guideline maximum amount of 140ml, or 14 UK units, a week. Guideline maximums in Italy, Portugal and Spain are almost 50% higher, while the US one for men is nearly double.

The lives of those who drank 125-250ml a week were shorter by around six months over the age of 40. Those who drank 250-438ml lived between one and two years less, while drinking beyond the top end of the range typically cut lifetimes by between four and five years.

It strengthens evidence, the authors say, that “total cardiovascular disease risk is actually comprised of several distinct and opposite dose–response curves rather than a single J-shaped association”.

Higher alcohol consumption was associated with a higher risk of stroke, heart failure, fatal hypertensive disease, and fatal aortic aneurysm, with no thresholds below which lower alcohol consumption stopped reducing risk (see chart).

But higher consumption was also associated with a lower risk of non-fatal heart attacks, or “myocardial infarctions”. The authors say, however, that the increased risk of having fatal heart problems means we are likely to lose years of life if we were to drink alcohol to ward off non-fatal problems.

“The key message of this research for public health is that, if you already drink alcohol, drinking less may help you live longer and lower your risk of several cardiovascular conditions,” said Dr Angela Wood, lead author of the study from Cambridge University.

Non-drinkers were excluded from the study, because we often stop drinking when we develop health problems, so skewing the numbers. The study also excluded people with pre-existing heart conditions. ■